Diorex

Almost a year ago I suggested selling Google short.

Here is what the stock looks like since then courtesy of Google Finance.

I ended up shorting 100 shares at 704, but covered way to soon at 520, but that is not chump change.

I used to run a hedge fund and from time to time I make some bets, but I am almost always out of the market except for some retirement mutual funds. This year has been a great time to be out of the market.

The only other trade I made this year was long corn back in February and March and that was a nice win too.

Anyway, with Google now at $311 per share and trading at a PE below 20, I am starting to think about getting long again with no downside hedge. I will probably buy a few hundred shares with an exit price in the high 500’s.

Sure the growth has slowed way down, but there is still plenty left, mostly overseas, but also from Yahoo imploding and basically giving market share to Google.

A few other things I like - they are now starting to take ads on things they used to not in principle, like gambling outside the US or beer and liquor - this could be a few final last straws but I suspect there is some really good money there. They also have lots of talented people who are working for below market wages who now are totally underwater on options packages and thus they will need to work the stock to be able to keep them.

I suspect there are quite a few other levers that have not been turned by the financial guys at Google and now that growth has slowed, that these levers will be strategically pulled in time.

One other trade I am thinking of making is long Oil under $60 with an exit target around $90 in early summer - will probably cover that with some sort of options position in case oil goes to $40.

Totally off post topic - so if you are not fascinated by this election cycle then just move on…

I am sitting here watching the CNN countdown of delegates needed by Obama to ‘clinch’ the Democratic nomination. According to the home of the voice of Darth Vader he just need 6 more right now.

I cannot help but think, and find it strange that not one talking head is saying this, but a Super Delegate is totally uncommitted and can change their vote at any time up until it is placed at the convention - several have changed their minds already, mostly moving from Clinton to Obama.

If Obama did something enormously stupid in the next few weeks or months, or some past event was to come to light before the convention, then these delegates can and almost certainly would change their votes.

This is not the case for the Republicans, because McCain has won a majority of obligated votes that must vote for him on the first ballet, thus wrapping the Republican nomination up regardless of what might happen in the interim.

Now I am not a Constitutional Scholar or anything like that, but what if Al Gore was to tell Larry King he regrets not campaigning for the Democratic nomination and would accept it enthusiastically if offered to him at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

The way I see that playing out is that more than enough of the non-committed delegates are probably sick of both candidates, see Gore as a person who could actually win with dramatic coat tails and that would unite the party - which is very much fragmented currently.

So on the first vote, Obama and Clinton both fall short of a majority and Gore gets a few hundred or so votes. My understanding is that the committed delegates are now free to vote for whomever they want, meaning that Gore, Edwards or lots of others could actually end up the nominee in what would almost certainly be the cure for low convention ratings.

Please dont read me wrong, an Al Gore fanboy I am not. I am however a huge fan of televised train wrecks and the last 4 months has been regularly scheduled Tuesday night train wrecks for the Democratic party. No wonder American Idol ratings were down.  If only Sanjaya had run for president, CNN might have had even better ratings.

Am I totally wrong here or is this nomination process very much not over? Sure, this is very unlikely to happen, but it can? right?

Hey, I have almost no friends on Xbox Live, because I never think to add cool people I play with as friends. Plus I suck so bad at most games that I never get asked to join any serious clans etc. Yet the most fun I ever have is playing co-op online with cool people.

I also like to see what games others are playing and what sucks. When I see a lot of people try a game and then get like 100 achievement points then move on to something else then that tells me it probably is not much fun.

So if you are an Xbox Live send me a friend request - Ill give ya one guess what my gamertag is.

Also post a comment here who you are so I know who is who.

Just some feedback on some recently played games….

Mass Effect - Hated it, starts slow as heck, I get stuck in the environment, saving is a pain, etc. All the reviews say get past the first few hours and it rocks… I am seriously having trouble doing that.

Guitar Hero 3 - I loved Guitar Hero 2, I bought it twice so me, my wife, and my au pair could play doubles. My 2 year old usually has one of these guitars in his hands when i come home hoping we can play - its great to play a game and have your kids right next to you playing along with an unplugged controller…GH3 lost me really early. It is a ton harder, I dont like the songs, the boss battles are stupid… I just gave up…

Call of Duty 4 - Loved it. great game. COD2 was pretty good, COD 3 I never even finished first scenario. COD 4 was awesome.

Rock Band - For all of the great reviews this has gotten, it stinks. The guitars buttons are sticky and end up screwing stuff up. The drums dont really work, you basically have to beat on them, I have tried to synchronize it to my TV and just cant get it to work. The play as a band feature is blah… It is a great idea, it is just not fun. I wish I had not opened the $180 box and instead had sold it for $500 on Ebay. Wonder what a used one would go for.

Anyway if you are on XboxLive add me to your friends.

Edit - Another reason to invite me to play and put up with my horrible skills is to pick my brain about what you are doing.